Is the world becoming more predictable?

- The article examines whether global systems (economics, geopolitics, weather) are becoming more or less predictable, likely drawing on complexity science, risk modeling, and forecasting. - Key context: After decades of relative stability (the "Great Moderation"), the post-2020 world has seen pandemic shocks, war in Ukraine, supply-chain disruptions, and volatile markets — raising doubts about our ability to foresee major events. - Relevant thinkers and frameworks: Nassim Taleb ("Black Swan" theory of rare, high-impact events); Philip Tetlock (expert forecasting accuracy); complexity theory (how small changes cascade into large, hard-to-predict outcomes). - The debate matters for investors, policymakers, and businesses who must decide how much to invest in prediction vs. building resilience against uncertainty.