Venezuela reveals $240B in debt it cannot pay (~$100B more than expected)
Venezuela's transitional government has revealed $240 billion in total public debt, about $100 billion more than previously estimated, as it prepares to launch what officials call the largest debt restructuring in modern history following the fall of Nicolás Maduro's regime.
Background
- Venezuela's new government revealed ~$240B in external debt — nearly $100B more than expected — after Maduro's ouster earlier in 2026. This would be the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history, dwarfing Argentina's $65B (2020) and Greece's €107B (2012).
- Most of the debt is in default since 2017 and includes large loans from China (~$50-100B) and Russia (oil-for-loan deals), plus bonds and arbitration claims from nationalized industries.
- The transitional government may try to repudiate "odious" debt incurred to prop up an authoritarian regime — legally complex and geopolitically sensitive.
- Venezuela's oil output has collapsed from 3M to under 400K barrels/day, making repayment impossible without severe haircuts. How this is resolved will set a major precedent for successor regimes inheriting dictator-era debts.