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Geopolitical Risk Index

The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index measures geopolitical tensions by tracking mentions of related terms in major newspapers. Developed by Matteo Iacoviello and colleagues, the index provides monthly and daily data from 1985 onwards, capturing events like wars, terrorism, and diplomatic crises.

Background

The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index is a monthly metric created by economists Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello that quantifies geopolitical tensions using automated text searches of newspaper archives. It tracks threats, acts, and escalations related to war, terrorism, and political tensions since 1985, drawing from major US, UK, and Canadian newspapers. The index spikes during events like the Gulf Wars, 9/11, the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the post-2022 sanctions environment. It is widely used in academic and policy research to study how geopolitical shocks affect economic activity, financial markets, and corporate behavior — making it a standard reference for anyone analyzing the economic fallout of global instability.

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