Global warming has made Europe's heatwave 2-4°C worse
A new analysis finds that human-caused global warming made Europe's recent heatwave 2 to 4 degrees Celsius more intense than it would have been otherwise, underscoring the growing impact of climate change on extreme weather events in the region.
Background
- This article reports the findings of an "attribution study" — a type of climate science that uses statistical models and weather simulations to calculate how much more likely or intense a specific extreme weather event became because of human-caused climate change.
- The study was likely done by World Weather Attribution (WWA), a collaboration of climate researchers that rapidly analyzes heatwaves, floods, and storms while they are still in the news.
- Europe's heatwaves have been intensifying faster than the global average because the continent is a "hot spot" for warming, partly due to changes in the jet stream and feedback loops like drier soil amplifying heat.
- "2-4°C worse" means the heatwave's peak temperatures were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius higher than they would have been in a world without the ~1.3°C of warming since the pre-industrial era. Even small shifts in average temperature dramatically increase the likelihood of extreme heat.