Why prediction markets aren't popular

- Prediction markets are platforms where people bet real money on the outcome of future events (e.g., "Who will win the 2028 US election?"). The idea is that prices reflect collective wisdom, often outperforming polls or expert forecasts. - Despite decades of advocacy by economists and tech figures (Robin Hanson, Tyler Cowen), they remain niche. Polymarket saw a 2024 surge but mostly during high-profile US events. - Key barriers: unclear legal status in the US (the CFTC has blocked some proposals), moral objections to "betting on tragedy," low liquidity outside major events, and the simple fact that most people prefer watching pundits or taking strong positions for free. - The article argues these are not just regulatory glitches but deeper structural limits: prediction markets work best for binary, verifiable, near-term events with high public interest — a narrow slice of what forecasting actually involves.