Some Simple Economics of AGI
This paper explores the economic implications of artificial general intelligence (AGI), applying basic economic principles to analyze its potential impact on productivity, labor markets, and economic growth, while considering how AGI might differ from previous technological advances.
Background
- This is a paper by economist Tyler Cowen (George Mason University) that applies basic economic concepts to the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI) — AI that can match or exceed human cognitive ability across nearly all tasks.
- Cowen argues that the central economic effect of AGI is not just faster growth, but a massive drop in the price of cognitive labor, which would upend how we think about wages, substitution, and production.
- The paper distinguishes between "booms" (when human and AI labor are complements) and a future state where AI substitutes for most human work entirely.
- Cowen is known for applying heterodox, simple models to big questions; this paper is part of a growing literature on the economics of AI, following work by Acemoglu, Autor, and others on automation and labor markets.