As the Tide Turns Against Putin, Beware the Drowning Man
The article warns that as Russia faces military setbacks in Ukraine, President Putin may escalate the conflict dangerously, potentially targeting NATO allies. It cautions that a cornered Putin, like a drowning man, could lash out unpredictably, urging Europe and the United States to prepare for heightened risks and avoid underestimating his capacity for drastic action.
Background
- The article analyzes Russia's war in Ukraine as of June 2026, arguing that Moscow is losing momentum and that Vladimir Putin may become dangerously unpredictable as his position weakens — the "drowning man" metaphor suggesting he could lash out irrationally.
- Key background: Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. After early setbacks, Ukraine recaptured territory in 2022–23, but a 2024–25 Russian offensive regained some ground. By mid-2026, the tide is shifting again in Ukraine's favor, raising the risk that Putin might escalate (e.g., use of nuclear threats, attacks on NATO supply lines, or a mass mobilization) rather than accept defeat.
- Why it matters: Putin's potential escalation could directly threaten NATO members (Poland, the Baltics, Romania) and tests Western resolve to keep supplying weapons without being drawn into direct war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
- Prior context: NATO has avoided direct intervention but has repeatedly expanded eastward (Finland joined in 2023, Sweden in 2024), which Russia cites as provocation. China, Iran, and North Korea have supplied Russia with arms and drones, prolonging the war.