Rent control and freeze policies are returning, echoing similar measures from the 1970s. The article argues these policies can reduce housing investment, cause shortages, and worsen building conditions, potentially repeating past economic and social problems.
Background
- The article discusses a local political controversy in Berkeley, California, where a city council candidate proposed freezing rents at their 2024 levels for the next four years. This has sparked debate about whether such policies help or harm renters in the long run.
- Rent control and rent freezes are highly contentious in economics: proponents say they protect tenants from displacement; critics argue they discourage new housing construction, reduce housing supply, and benefit mostly current renters at the expense of future ones.
- The article references a famous 1970s-era study by economists Cheung and Bignon that analyzed rent control in Hong Kong, drawing parallels to Berkeley today. The 1970s context matters because that decade saw multiple US cities adopt rent control, followed by a wave of economic research showing unintended negative consequences.
- The piece is written for a Substack audience familiar with urban policy debates and uses the Berkeley case to argue that well-intentioned rent freezes can backfire by worsening the very housing shortage they aim to address.
Build-to-rent housing—single-family homes constructed specifically for rental purposes—has seen a rapid increase in popularity, marking a major shift in the housing market in recent years.
The article argues that commonly cited stock market return figures (6–16%) are misleading, recommending 4% as a more realistic assumption. This accounts for compounding (CAGR of 8–11%), inflation of 3–4%, and 1–3% in costs/taxes, resulting in a net real return of 2–6%.
Moses Kagan argues that lower rents require increasing housing supply, not government subsidies, and that private investors can fund development if regulations on permitting, tenant screening, evictions, and rent control are reduced to allow reasonable profits.