What a Russian Army Collapse Might Look Like
The article examines how Ukraine could trigger a Russian military collapse by targeting logistics, morale, and command nodes with drones and strikes, drawing on past Russian retreats to outline a potential cascading breakdown, while noting Russia's capacity to adapt.
Background
- The Bulwark is a US center-right online magazine founded by never-Trump conservatives. The author, James Bock, is a retired US Army colonel writing about military strategy.
- The article explores the possibility of a sudden, cascading collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine — not a slow defeat, but a rapid disintegration like the 2022 Kharkiv or Kherson retreats, where poor logistics, low morale, and Ukrainian pressure caused panicked flight.
- Key context: After nearly three years of war, Russia has absorbed enormous losses through waves of mobilized troops and prisoners but suffers from corruption, rigid command, and fragile supply chains. Ukraine has its own shortages of manpower and Western shells.
- "Force collapse" in military theory means a unit stops fighting as an organized body — soldiers flee, abandon equipment, command breaks. The article argues Russia's structural weaknesses make this a real possibility if Ukraine can exploit a breach.