What Medallia's faceplant tells us about private credit
Medallia's financial struggles highlight risks in the private credit market, as the software company's debt load from a buyout has led to distress, raising questions about the resilience of private lending practices.
Background
- Medallia is a customer-experience software firm that was taken private by private-equity firm Thoma Bravo in 2021 for $6.4bn. It has struggled under that debt load.
- "Private credit" (or direct lending) refers to loans made by non-bank lenders (e.g., asset managers, specialty finance firms) to mid-sized companies, rather than via public debt markets or banks. This market has exploded in recent years.
- The "faceplant" mentioned is Medallia's recent debt restructuring, where private-credit lenders who lent to the company had to take a "haircut" (loss) on their loans — something proponents of private credit had long argued was unlikely, because private lenders can work quietly with borrowers.
- This matters because private credit is a large, fast-growing, and relatively new corner of finance with little public transparency. A high-profile restructuring that inflicts losses on lenders challenges the narrative that private credit is safer or more flexible than public debt. It may signal broader trouble in the sector if interest rates stay high and corporate earnings weaken.
The post argues that affordability is a key weakness of the US economy, noting that many Americans still struggle to afford everyday necessities despite stock market gains.
Anthony Pompliano interviewed Ankur Nagpal about how retail investors can access private markets (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX) with as little as $500 via USVC. They discussed the Anduril SPV controversy, portfolio strategy, QSBS tax benefits, and lessons from AngelList on building wealth through private market investing.
Anthony Pompliano argues that diversification stems from a lack of conviction, citing data that 46 companies created 50% of all stock market wealth since 1925. He notes that the biggest winners are rarely obvious at first, and that selling great assets too early is often a bigger mistake than buying the wrong ones.