Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing its own prediction market app
Meta reportedly held acquisition talks with prediction market startup Kalshi before deciding to develop its own competing app. The discussions highlight Meta's interest in prediction markets, though the deal did not materialize.
Background
- Prediction markets let people bet on future events (e.g., "Will the Fed raise rates in June?"). They've become a popular alternative to polling, especially in tech and crypto circles.
- Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange approved by the CFTC. It offers legal, non-crypto binary "yes/no" contracts on politics, economics, and more.
- Meta (Facebook/Instagram's parent) considered buying Kalshi but decided to build its own prediction market app instead. Meta views such markets as a way to boost engagement and gather real-time sentiment data.
- This matters because Meta could bring hundreds of millions of users to a once-niche space. It also raises questions about data use, market manipulation, and whether existing regulation can keep up if a platform controlled by a single giant hosts the betting.