Despite its best efforts, Iran won't be able to toll the Strait of Hormuz
Iran cannot effectively block the Strait of Hormuz due to international naval power, economic self-interest, and its own reliance on oil exports, making sustained disruption impossible.
Background
- The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. About 20% of the world's oil passes through it, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.
- Iran has periodically threatened to block or "toll" the strait — i.e., restrict passage — as leverage in confrontations with the US and its allies, most recently amid tensions over Iran's nuclear program and sanctions.
- The article argues that Iran lacks the naval capacity to actually enforce a blockade for long, citing the US Navy's Fifth Fleet (based in Bahrain) and advanced surveillance technology that would allow the US to quickly clear the strait if needed.
- Key background: In 2019, Iran was blamed for attacks on oil tankers near the strait; in 2023, it seized a few commercial vessels. But the US and allied navies routinely patrol the area, and Iran's missile and drone capabilities — while real — are not enough to stop traffic through a 21-mile-wide strait against determined opposition.