Is the iPhone birth control? Causal evidence from AT&T's 2007-2011 monopoly [pdf]
Using AT&T's exclusive iPhone monopoly (2007-2011), this study finds that smartphone access significantly reduced fertility rates among young adults, suggesting the device acted as a de facto form of birth control.
Background
- This NBER working paper tests whether smartphone access reduces teen pregnancy, using AT&T's exclusive deal to carry the original iPhone (2007–2011) as a natural experiment — researchers compared teen birth rates in AT&T vs. non-AT&T coverage areas before and after the iPhone launched.
- The punny title references economist Milton Friedman's famous line about "the Pill," asking if a device (iPhone) acts as a form of contraception by changing how teens spend time.
- AT&T was the sole US carrier for the original iPhone, creating a quasi-random "treatment" group: teens in good AT&T coverage areas got smartphones years before those in rival carrier areas did.
- The study finds early iPhone access significantly lowered teen birth rates, consistent with the "couch potato effect" — immersive mobile media displacing in-person socializing and unprotected sex.