Width vs. Depth: Speculating on the Margin

- This post is by an anonymous blogger ("DoubleWord") who writes about AI, rationality, and effective altruism (EA) — a philosophical and philanthropic movement focused on using evidence and reason to do the most good possible. - "Speculating on the margin" refers to betting on small, overlooked opportunities at the edges of a field, rather than on the obvious winners. - The "width vs. depth" framing distinguishes between shallow insight across many domains (width) vs. deep mastery of a single domain (depth). - The author argues that within AI safety and alignment (the field concerned with making sure advanced AI systems behave as intended), the most promising research directions are often at the margins — small, unfashionable ideas dismissed by mainstream labs. - This is part of a broader tension in EA/rationalist communities: whether to concentrate resources on a few likely-high-impact bets (depth) or to spread bets across many speculative ideas (width).