How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2027
ACA Marketplace premiums are projected to increase in 2027, driven by factors such as rising medical costs, insurer claims experience, and changes in the enhanced premium tax credits' expiration. The brief analyzes the extent of the increases and the underlying reasons, highlighting the uncertainty around federal policy decisions that could affect affordability and enrollment.
Background
- The ACA Marketplace (aka Obamacare) is where Americans without employer-provided or government insurance buy private health plans, with income-based subsidies.
- Enhanced premium tax credits — temporary subsidies that made plans much cheaper — were passed in 2021 and extended through 2025, but are set to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress acts.
- If they expire, millions of enrollees will see sharp premium increases starting in 2026, and the 2027 rates reflect the full removal of those subsidies plus normal medical cost trends.
- The article tracks "benchmark" premiums (the second-cheapest silver plan, which determines subsidy amounts) and "full-price" premiums (the unsubsidized sticker price).
- Rate filings are preliminary and finalized by state regulators each fall for the following year's coverage.