与@jvisserlabs对谈：超大规模企业疲软、开源模型崛起、Mythos/Fable 5局势、美联储与通胀、比特币熊市
作者与@jvisserlabs深入探讨了当前多个热点议题：超大规模云服务商近期表现疲软、开源AI模型的崛起及其对中美AI竞赛的影响、Mythos/Fable 5事件对政府与投资者的启示、凯文·沃什首次美联储发布会解读、通胀真实走向，以及比特币仍处熊市的原因。对话还涉及AI与能源是否成为市场唯一支撑、美国人生活成本困境等话题。
背景速读
- Anthony Pompliano ("Pomp") is a prominent crypto investor and podcaster; Joost Visser is a macro-focused tech analyst. Their discussion targets investors navigating current market narratives.
- "Hyperscalers" refers to Big Tech cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) pouring capital into AI. "Recent weakness" alludes to growing unease about whether that massive AI capex spend will pay off — a central debate in 2025.
- "Mythos/Fable 5" is a classified US government AI project (name redacted in public), reportedly an advanced LLM for defense. The situation references a leak or policy shift that rattled government and private-sector AI assumptions.
- Kevin Warsh is a former Fed governor floated as a future Treasury Secretary. His hypothetical first press conference is used to discuss expected monetary policy changes.
- Bitcoin "bear market" reflects that despite the 2024 ETF approval, BTC hasn't entered a sustained bull cycle by early 2025 — macro headwinds (rates, liquidity) still weigh on crypto.