William Sealy Gosset, a Guinness brewer, improved beer by developing new statistical methods, publishing under the pseudonym "Student." He recognized that calculating 90% confidence intervals for the mean by assuming a normal distribution is incorrect.
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30 items from entropicthoughts-com
The article argues that commonly cited stock market return figures (6–16%) are misleading, recommending 4% as a more realistic assumption. This accounts for compounding (CAGR of 8–11%), inflation of 3–4%, and 1–3% in costs/taxes, resulting in a net real return of 2–6%.
The article explains the alpha-max plus beta-min algorithm, a mental shortcut for estimating the Pythagorean sum c = √(a² + b²) without heavy computation. It approximates c as max(a, 0.9a + 0.5b), which is useful for combining variances, computing radii, and similar tasks.
At Henley Royal Regatta, teams are randomly assigned starting stations (Berkshire or Buckinghamshire), but historical data shows the Berkshire station winner in 53.5% of 7,555 races—a statistically improbable result suggesting either non-random assignment or unequal starting advantage.
The author describes how their RSS feed previously only included titles and dates, and explains the two-step technical process used to generate it: first constructing an Org-mode syntax tree in Emacs Lisp, then exporting it via the ox-rss backend.
The article demonstrates how to implement the classic Fizz Buzz programming problem using monoids in functional programming, showing how combining semigroups and monoids can elegantly solve the problem by composing transformations.
The article explores how to understand complex systems by breaking them into components, identifying feedback loops, and observing behavior over time rather than focusing on static snapshots.
Spaced repetition is a learning technique that uses increasing intervals between review sessions to improve long-term memory retention. This beginner guide explains how it works, its benefits, and answers common questions about implementing the method effectively.
The article argues that transparent leadership, which involves openly sharing information and decision-making processes, is more effective than servant leadership. It suggests transparency builds trust and empowers teams better than the traditional servant leadership approach.
The article discusses using the Dialog programming language to solve Advent of Code challenges. It explores how Dialog's natural language processing capabilities can be applied to programming puzzles and problem-solving tasks.
The article discusses software deprecation strategies, emphasizing the importance of clear communication, providing migration paths, and setting realistic timelines. It argues that effective deprecation requires treating it as a feature rather than an afterthought, with proper documentation and tooling support.
The article explains how to package Perl and shell scripts for deployment on NixOS, covering dependency management and reproducible builds. It demonstrates creating Nix expressions to handle Perl modules and shell dependencies in the Nix ecosystem.
MIL-STD-882E establishes a standardized approach to software control levels for military systems. The standard defines categories for software control based on criticality and safety impact. It provides guidelines for managing software throughout the system lifecycle to ensure safety and reliability.
The article discusses the benefits of playing Go on a 9x9 board, highlighting how it offers faster games and clearer strategic patterns compared to larger boards. It emphasizes that 9x9 Go provides an excellent learning environment for beginners while maintaining the game's core strategic depth.
The article presents benchmark results for Gemini 3 Flash, comparing its performance across various tasks including reasoning, coding, and mathematics against other large language models. The updated evaluation provides insights into the model's capabilities and relative strengths in different domains.
Global disaster costs have risen dramatically from 1900 to 2024, with inflation-adjusted losses increasing significantly in recent decades. The data shows a clear upward trend in economic damage from natural disasters worldwide over this 124-year period.
The article argues that a kitchen slide rule is a useful tool for cooks, allowing for quick conversions between measurement units and recipe scaling. It explains how this analog device can simplify cooking calculations without requiring digital technology.
The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Retrospective analyzes the results of the annual forecasting competition, examining participant performance and prediction accuracy across various events. It discusses statistical outcomes and insights gained from the contest's questions and scoring methodology.
Nvidia's stock price has experienced significant volatility, with some analysts predicting a potential crash due to concerns about overvaluation and market saturation. The company faces challenges despite its strong position in AI and semiconductor markets. Market observers are closely watching for signs of a correction in Nvidia's stock valuation.
The article applies survival analysis techniques to examine the tenure of U.S. Supreme Court justices, analyzing factors that influence how long justices serve on the Court. It uses statistical methods to study judicial longevity and potential retirement patterns.
The article discusses methods for solving systems of equations more efficiently, focusing on computational techniques and algorithmic approaches that can accelerate the process beyond traditional methods.
The article discusses principles of succession planning, examining how organizations and systems transition leadership and authority. It explores various models and frameworks for ensuring continuity during leadership changes.
Wilks' tolerance intervals provide a statistical method to determine intervals that contain a specified proportion of a population with a given confidence level. The approach is based on order statistics and is particularly useful when dealing with limited sample sizes. This method has applications in various fields including engineering, manufacturing, and environmental monitoring.
The article discusses learning KeyBee, a keyboard layout designed for efficiency and ergonomics. It covers the layout's design principles and the learning process involved in adopting it.
The article explains how to implement flake checks in shell scripts for Nix projects. It demonstrates using shell scripts to run checks and tests as part of the Nix flake development workflow.
The article provides practical guidance for teaching children to ride bicycles, covering topics like choosing the right bike size, using balance bikes, and safety considerations. It emphasizes patience and gradual progression through different learning stages.
Magit provides powerful rebasing capabilities within Emacs, allowing users to interactively rebase commits, squash, edit, reorder, and drop commits. The tool offers a visual interface for managing commit history and resolving conflicts during the rebase process.
The article examines whether large language models are actually improving, analyzing recent benchmark results and questioning if apparent progress is real or just due to test data contamination. It discusses the challenges of measuring true capability gains versus superficial improvements.
This tutorial introduces Esqueleto, a type-safe EDSL for SQL queries in Haskell. It covers basic queries, joins, and advanced features while explaining how to integrate Esqueleto with Persistent for database operations.
The article argues that lines of code can be a useful metric when used appropriately, despite common criticism. It suggests that while LOC has limitations, it provides valuable insights about codebase size and complexity when combined with other measures.