#investing

Anthony Pompliano announces Silvia, an AI agent designed to provide personalized, 1-on-1 investment guidance to help investors grow their net worth, drawing a parallel to the effectiveness of one-on-one tutoring in education.

Customers are recognizing that tokens from three major IPOs are being burned for millions of dollars with little tangible return on investment.

Jan van Eck, who manages $200 billion in assets, stated that AI will not dramatically displace half the workforce. He based his view on historical analysis of disruptive technology's impact on employment and expressed no concern about AI-driven job losses.

A mobile app for trading shares of Trump Media & Technology Group is set to launch Thursday, allowing retail investors who hold DJT shares on certain platforms to buy and sell the stock through the app, which is designed to cater to supporters of former President Donald Trump.

The AI boom is driving significant demand for data-center and infrastructure loans, pushing private credit firms to sell loans among themselves more frequently — a practice once considered taboo — as they seek to manage risk and free up capital for new deals.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban has expressed disappointment with the crypto market, saying he has moved away from Bitcoin. Cuban cited concerns about the direction of the industry, including regulatory uncertainty and a shift away from the technology's original ideals.

A former Facebook employee shares the principle "you move what you measure," noting that most investors fail to track their financial details. The post promotes Silvia, a service that connects to users' portfolios and persistently monitors their finances.

The article argues that the current AI industry is driven by hype and speculation, resembling an economic bubble. It points to unsustainable valuations, lack of clear profitability for many AI companies, and compares the situation to past tech bubbles like the dot-com crash. The author suggests that a market correction could be imminent.

For the first time, the number of ETFs listed in the US has surpassed the number of individual stocks, signaling a major shift in how Americans invest. The total number of ETFs now exceeds the count of stocks on major US exchanges, reflecting growing demand for diversified, low-cost investment vehicles.

Index funds face a dilemma as SpaceX's private market valuation soars, making it too big to ignore for passive investors despite the risks and lack of public disclosure. The rise of mega-private companies is exposing the limitations of index fund rules, which struggle to accommodate valuable but unlisted firms.

Stocks are becoming cheaper as prices rise, according to the author, who emphasizes that corporate earnings are the key metric driving valuations and advises against listening to pessimistic views that claim otherwise.

The article examines limitations of the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as a valuation metric, arguing that earnings volatility and accounting distortions can mislead investors. It suggests that a focus on normalized or cyclically adjusted earnings provides a more reliable assessment of a company's true value.

The article explores the theoretical upper limits of the US stock market by examining constraints such as global GDP, corporate profitability, and market capitalization ratios. It argues that while there is no hard cap, fundamental economic boundaries like total world output and profit margins impose practical limits on long-term stock market growth.

Hedge funds are struggling to maintain their performance advantage as low-cost ETFs grow in popularity and accessibility. The article argues that the traditional edge of hedge funds—such as exclusive strategies and high fees—is eroding in a market increasingly dominated by passive, transparent investment vehicles.

The post notes that stock prices have fallen this year, yet public sentiment increasingly warns of a bubble, which the author finds contradictory and illogical.

The article highlights how Mark Cuban has consistently been correct in his business and technology predictions, even when public opinion disagreed with him at the time. It reviews several of his past calls, including his early skepticism of certain tech trends and his accurate foresight on market shifts, reinforcing his reputation as a forward-thinking investor.

The website whystockmove.com offers a service that helps users instantly understand the reasons behind any stock's price movement.

The article discusses how investors can profit from the impending contraction in higher education, as demographic shifts and rising costs force many smaller colleges to close or merge. It suggests strategies such as shorting for-profit colleges and investing in companies that provide cost-saving technologies and services to the sector.

Growing backlash against AI data centers, driven by environmental concerns and questions about economic returns, is creating risks for investors who have poured capital into the sector. Regulatory pushback and market skepticism could lead to reduced valuations and job losses in the AI infrastructure space.

A short post from Nivi (retweeted by Naval) emphasizes that startup success depends on founders rather than individual deals or investments.

The article warns that US markets may be disconnected from economic reality, driven by investor optimism and policy expectations rather than underlying fundamentals. It cautions that this divergence between market performance and actual conditions could lead to sharp corrections if reality catches up with overvalued asset prices.

The article argues that stocks are not a reliable hedge against inflation, as rising prices can erode corporate profits and reduce real returns for investors. Historical data shows that equities often underperform during periods of high inflation compared to assets like commodities or real estate. Investors expecting stocks to protect their portfolios from inflation may be disappointed.

A reader shares reflections on "Poor Charlie’s Almanack," noting Charlie Munger's practical, no-ego philosophy. Munger attributes Berkshire's success not to solving hard problems, but to recognizing simple solutions and acting on them. He advises that mistakes are inevitable, so the goal is to make fewer of them and fix them quickly.

The article argues that the commonly cited 7-10% annual stock market return is misleading because it ignores inflation, taxes, and fees. When accounting for 3% average inflation and taxes on dividends and capital gains, the real average annual return for investors is closer to 4%. This lower effective return has significant implications for retirement planning and wealth accumulation expectations.

A Hacker News discussion explores the implications of SpaceX's IPO, noting that index funds have changed rules to allow immediate inclusion of IPOs. Users debate how passive investors, startups, and entrepreneurship might be affected, and discuss whether the public will invest based on brand recognition rather than company fundamentals.

Index funds are often considered a low-cost investment, but hidden fee layers like securities lending revenue and transaction costs can significantly reduce returns. The article argues that most investors underestimate the true impact of fees, with indexes like the S&P 500 potentially losing over a third of their historical return to costs.

Situational Awareness LP, a venture capital fund managed by Leopold Aschenbrenner, filed its Q1 13F with the SEC, revealing its largest holdings include Nvidia, Palantir, and Meta. The fund also holds positions in other AI-related companies like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Broadcom.

Flint is a unified investment and financial management platform that consolidates banking, stocks, crypto, ETFs, and other assets into a single app, aiming to eliminate the need for multiple apps to manage personal finances.

The article profiles an optometrist who achieved billionaire status through savvy investing, despite lacking a formal finance background. His disciplined, long-term approach and focus on undervalued companies allowed him to beat the odds and build enormous wealth quietly, earning him the title of a largely unknown but highly successful investor.

The article argues that in startups, founders are the most critical factor — everything else, including ideas and execution details, is secondary to the quality and determination of the founding team.